Claim: There is no real terms cut to Welsh Government’s budget allocation for 2027-28
This is false.
The Welsh Government’s resource block grant settlement in 2027-28 is £146m, or 0.6%, higher in cash terms than in 2026-27. However, taking account of inflation in 2027-28 of 2.1%, this translates into a 1.5% real terms reduction.
The Welsh Government’s resource budget also includes the devolved taxes net position and business rates. Taking account of those elements in both years increases the year-on-year cash terms increase to around £400m or 1.6%. However, in real terms that still means a 0.5% reduction.
On that basis, the Welsh Government, alongside independent commentators such as the Institute for Fiscal Studies, have assessed the impact of the UK Budget on Wales as resulting in real terms reductions to our funding next year.
It should be noted that the average annual real terms increase in the Welsh Government’s budget over the course of the current UK parliamentary term (2023-24 to 2028-29) is set to be lower than the previous UK parliamentary term (2019-20 to 2023-24).
More information can be found here: Written Statement: The implications of the UK Autumn Budget (5 November 2026) | GOV.WALES